Quickly, Sherman ... into the wayback machine, where we find the usual suspects making the same, stupid predictions:
November 29, 2004
Take $10 off the Price of Oil
by Steve H. Hanke
Steve H. Hanke is a professor of applied economics at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore and a senior fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C.
Oil prices have more than doubled since 2001, hitting $55 per barrel in mid-October. This price surge has produced a great deal of handwringing and gloomy predictions. Doomsters claim that output simply can't keep up with demand--that we have entered a new era of permanently high oil prices.
Not to worry, though, since Steve is apparently a graduate of the Bill Kristol School of Being Perpetually Fucking Wrong About Every Goddamned Thing in the Universe:
Before we jump on this bandwagon, let's take a look at the price behavior of WestTexas intermediate crude oil. If we adjust prices to today's dollars, the average oil price from 1988 through October was just under $28, and 95% of the time the price fell within a range of $14 to $41.
Oh, let's just leap ahead to the fuzzy, sparkle rainbow, hand-clapping conclusion, shall we?
I predict that the further consequence would be to send oil prices down close to the historical average, which is just under $30.
And how's all that optimism working out there, Nostradamus? Whoops ...
And remember, when the U.S. invades
You read it here first.
5 comments:
Guys — you're missing something here.
Oil is priced in dollars, and not loonies.
Where is the loonie and where is the dollar?
Youy think it's Stephen's magic that's propping up the loonie? The day before Dear Leader moved into the White House, a Euro cost 98¢; these days, a Euro costs $1.43 to $1.46.
That's also what's driving theNew York Stock Exchange, because trade in equities is an international market, where the dollar competes with other currencies.
Secondly, about Iran: 'We do deserts, we don't do mountains.' (Colin Powell)
We learned that lesson in Korea. And figured out in the process why Hitler never invaded Switzerland. (Unlike Vietnam, Canada participated in Korea.)
Eastern Iran is desert; Western Iran is mountains. The Iranian people, almost exclusively, live in the West.
There are limits to everything. That is why Dear Leader is talking about surgical air strikes. The US Army is not — I say again not — going to invade Iran.
I agree however that an attack on Iran would improve the price of oil.
Youy think it's Stephen's magic that's propping up the loonie?
No. It's the high price of commodities, mostly.
The day before Dear Leader moved into the White House, a Euro cost 98¢; these days, a Euro costs $1.43 to $1.46.
That's also what's driving theNew York Stock Exchange, because trade in equities is an international market, where the dollar competes with other currencies.
In other words, no one has a freakin' clue. Yeah, I guessed that already. I just wish people would admit that instead of making predictions. Like this one:
The US Army is not — I say again not — going to invade Iran.
Seer -- What happens when Iran prices their oil in Euros? Let's face it, who wants devalued US$?
An attack on Iran would improve the price of oil? WTF!
Well, sure it would improve the price of oil.
If you presume that the real reasoning behind the Bush/Cheney actions is to consolidate the power of the ur-wealthy, then making certain oil and gas is a gold rush commodity due to uncertainty of supply even above the boring arguments of peak oil....
....then everything is going swimmingly. And it makes it even MORE urgent that the upstart brown peoples not be able to nationalize their own resources, which means more war, which means...
I'm looking forward to the new generations of solar panels. It's ironic that the high prices of oil and gas are finally the blessing to kick alternate energy research into high gear.
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