Monday, November 07, 2005

Open thread.


Because behind every good blogger, there's a good open thread.
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4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Anonalogue, where do you see the CPC gaining seats? Yes, the polls show them leading in popular support, but which seats do you think they will win that they didn't win before?

Because I see them losing seats to the NDP in BC (although they will get Cadman's seat back). They might finally make Alberta completely blue, but I don't think that will make up for the losses in BC. I don't believe they can gain more CPC seats in Sask and Man, and certainly not in Quebec. I haven't seen enough recent regional results to call Atlantic Canada, but until recently they were leaning pretty Liberal. I don't think that the CPC will gain in urban Ontario, or at least, not by more than a half dozen seats.

I'm inclined to think that the polls show blue support solidifying in ridings that already vote blue, not new blue support.

Obviously the Bloc will gain seats, and I think the NDP will gain as well.

So here's my election predictions:

Libs: 115 CPC: 105 Bloc: 62 NDP: 26

Which puts us right back into a minority Lib gov't with not enough seats held by the NDP to make a coalition. In fact, the CPC and Bloc will be able to bring down the gov't at their leisure. The GG may offer parliament to the CPC at that point, but I don't think they could hold onto it as the Bloc would probably vote against them on anything remotely resembling a social issue.

12:59 PM
Mike said...

Actually, given the breakdown of the last poll, I would suggest that only the NDP and BQ will make any gains, and at the expense of the Liberals - perhaps a seat or two out west from the CPC -

Libs 115, CPC 97, NDP 29, BQ 67

Libs drop a lot but the CPC essentially holds while the BQ and the NDP gain.

Now that would make for an interesting parliament...

1:10 PM
Anonymous said...

LOL

Mike I like your prediction better than mine. But I just can't see the the number of seats the CPC hold declining, even though they won't hold on to all their BC ridings. I really think that Alberta will finally go all blue. Edmonton went Liberal only by a very squeaky margin.

On the other hand, I fear you're right about the Bloc seats, and hope you're right about the NDP...

2:09 PM
Mike said...

Anon,

I disagree with you assessment of the Atlantic - When the numbers OUTSIDE Quebec are examinined, the LIbs have 57% support out east, so a CPC break through is not likely.

The NDP have 24% support outside of Quebec and most of it is in the West, where at least 4 seats were won by the CPC by only a few hundred votes. Add in BC and that's where I get my numbers from.

A guess yes, but not out of the ball park

4:09 PM

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